Most kids need to attend Welsh-medium primary schools by 2030 in order to reach the Welsh Government's million Welsh speakers target, according to a campaign group's research.
According to statistical work published by Cymdeithas yr Iaith at the Urdd Eisteddfod today, within just over twenty years 19 out of 22 councils in Wales will need to ensure that the majority of the youngest children are in Welsh-medium education. And, by 2040, the research claims that over three quarters of seven year olds willneed to be in the Welsh-medium sector if the Government target of a million speakers by the middle of the century is to be met.
In Bridgend, site of the Urdd Eisteddfod this year, the statistics suggests that the percentage of seven year-oldkids taught through Welsh will need to more than treble, from 8.6% to 28.6%, by 2030. In Flintshire, the percentage will need to rise from 5.7% to 20.4%, and, in Carmarthenshire from 55% to 84.1%. In Conwy and Denbighshire, to meet the national target of a million speakers, the local authorities will need to boost provision from around a quarter of children attending Welsh-medium education to almost 60% in just over a decade.
The report comes as the former Assembly Member Aled Roberts conducts an inquiry of Welsh in Education Strategic Plans - which outline how county councils plan to grow Welsh-medium provision – for the Welsh Government.
Speaking ahead of the publication of the research at the Eisteddfod, Toni Schiavone, campaign group Cymdeithas yr Iaith's education spokesperson commented:
"These statistics may be only one piece of the jigsaw, but they are a vital piece if the government is going to reach its target. Because of the optimistic assumptions behind the research, these targets are the absolute minimum one could possibly set in order to reach the million speakers target. Indeed, there's a strong argumentthat one needs to move more quickly and further. In the short term, one of the most important milestones for government is ensuring that more and more teachers are trained to teach through the medium of Welsh. However, we are yet to see the transformative changes that are by now urgently needed.
"Targets such as these, as part of a package of measures, are vital if we are deliver on the cross-party supportto see the language thrive. As we said two years ago in our vision document, as well as action in education, measures are needed to stem out-migration, especially of young people, as well as normalising the use of the language in every part of people's lives.
"Our local members have responded to and scrutinised local Welsh-medium education plans: they are insufficient to say the least. The Government must consider a system which sets targets for local authorities which include a minimum of Welsh-medium provision. We believe that the system should force local authorites to plan how they will deliver on thoser targets in order to create the million Welsh speakers nationally."
The group says that, at the same time as expanding Welsh-medium education in every institution, the Government's plan to replace second language Welsh with a single Welsh qualification for every child by 2021 must be implemented.
Referring to the challenge in other areas, Toni Schiavone added:
"On the positive side, without a doubt, the Government's intention to move all schools up the continuum in terms of providing more and more education through the medium of Welsh is the right move. And the decisionto abolish Second Language Welsh is also heartening to see. We should expect the education system in every part of Wales to ensure that every pupil has the ability to work and communicate in Welsh.
"In a number of counties, the fact that many pupils don't continue in the Welsh-medium sector after primaryschool is the main challenge. In counties like Gwynedd, abolishing the option of sitting the second language qualification is a vital part of improving the situation, as it will end the possibility of the system allowing pupils to lose their ability to speak the language. The lack of continuity between Welsh-medium primary education and secondary schools is a major problem in a number of areas, particularily in the West and North."
Main findings of the research:
Based on the 2.5% a year growth figure, apportioning the percentage of 7 year-olds taught through the medium of Welsh in the following years (proportional odds) sets the below targets for each of the 22 councils in Wales:
|
County
|
2014
|
2025
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
|
Ynys Môn
|
72.1%
|
87.6%
|
91.7%
|
94.9%
|
97.4%
|
|
Gwynedd
|
97.8%
|
99.2%
|
99.5%
|
99.7%
|
99.8%
|
|
Conwy
|
25.1%
|
47.9%
|
58.7%
|
70.9%
|
82.8%
|
|
Denbighshire
|
24.5%
|
47.1%
|
58.0%
|
70.2%
|
82.3%
|
|
Flintshire
|
5.7%
|
14.2%
|
20.4%
|
30.5%
|
46.4%
|
|
Wrecsam
|
12.0%
|
27.2%
|
36.7%
|
49.7%
|
66.1%
|
|
Powys
|
19.3%
|
39.6%
|
50.4%
|
63.5%
|
77.4%
|
|
Ceredigion
|
74.0%
|
88.7%
|
92.4%
|
95.4%
|
97.6%
|
|
Pembrokeshire
|
19.7%
|
40.2%
|
51.0%
|
64.0%
|
77.8%
|
|
Carmarthenshire
|
55.4%
|
77.3%
|
84.1%
|
90.0%
|
94.7%
|
|
Swansea
|
14.1%
|
31.1%
|
41.1%
|
54.4%
|
70.1%
|
|
Neath Port Talbot
|
18.7%
|
38.7%
|
49.4%
|
62.5%
|
76.7%
|
|
Bridgend
|
8.6%
|
20.5%
|
28.6%
|
40.6%
|
57.4%
|
|
Vale of Glamorgan
|
12.9%
|
28.9%
|
38.6%
|
51.8%
|
68.0%
|
|
Rhondda Cynon Taf
|
19.9%
|
40.5%
|
51.3%
|
64.3%
|
78.1%
|
|
Merthyr Tudful
|
11.7%
|
26.7%
|
36.0%
|
49.0%
|
65.5%
|
|
Cardiff
|
15.1%
|
32.8%
|
43.0%
|
56.4%
|
71.8%
|
|
Caerffili
|
18.9%
|
39.0%
|
49.7%
|
62.8%
|
76.9%
|
|
Blaenau Gwent
|
5.1%
|
12.9%
|
18.6%
|
28.1%
|
43.5%
|
|
Torfaen
|
10.2%
|
23.8%
|
32.5%
|
45.2%
|
61.9%
|
|
Monmouthshire
|
5.8%
|
14.5%
|
20.7%
|
30.9%
|
46.8%
|
|
Newport
|
4.5%
|
11.5%
|
16.7%
|
25.5%
|
40.3%
|
|
All Wales
|
19.4%*
|
39.7%
|
50.5%
|
63.6%
|
77.5%
|
*Please note there is a difference between the figures notes above and the percentage noted in the Welsh Government's annual report on the welsh-medium education strategy because Cymdeithas analysis is based on ONS population projections which include children educated at home and in the private sector
